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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 18
2015-09-03 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015 ...FRED RESTRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 33.2W ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 33.2 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, so some fluctuations in strength will be possible today. Afterwards, however, Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Friday morning and become a post-tropical low by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-09-03 10:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 030846 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-09-03 10:45:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030845 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 33.2W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 33.2W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 32.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.2N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 26.5N 41.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 28.8N 40.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 33.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-03 04:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:54:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 02:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-09-03 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic. The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance envelope. Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72 hours. This, in combination with dry air entraining into the cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not earlier. After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and increasing moisture. In theory, this could allow the system to regenerate. However, while the dynamical models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of them show any significant intensification in the more favorable environment. Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a weak remnant low through 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.6N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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