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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2015-09-03 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 030235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-03 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 20.6, -32.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 17
2015-09-03 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 ...FRED SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 32.7W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is encountering strong upper-level winds, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Thursday and become a post-tropical low by Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 17
2015-09-03 04:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 32.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 32.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 32.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.2N 33.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.8N 35.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 37.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 26.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 28.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 32.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-02 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022034 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the center this afternoon. Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone for a bit longer. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of 2.5 from TAFB. Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection. Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Fred should move west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days. After that time, the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the Azores. The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and is near the middle of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.3N 31.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 22.4N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 40.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 25.3N 41.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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