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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-09-02 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 022033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)

2015-09-02 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FRED REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 20.3, -31.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 16

2015-09-02 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015 ...FRED REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 31.8W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 31.8 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 16

2015-09-02 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 31.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 31.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 31.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.7N 32.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 34.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.9N 36.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.4N 37.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 40.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.3N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 31.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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