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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-02 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 14:37:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Sep 2015 14:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-02 16:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021437 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015 Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent ASCAT overpass. If organized deep convection does not return very soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical cyclone this afternoon. Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to gradually spin down during the next few days. Very late in the forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs and in an area of lower shear. Redevelopment appears unlikely, however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central Atlantic. Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The forecast calls for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. After that time, the remnant low is predicted to turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure area centered south of the Azores. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the southern edge of the model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.8N 30.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 20.2N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/1200Z 20.9N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 21.5N 35.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 21.9N 36.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 22.7N 39.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 24.2N 41.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 26.5N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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fred
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-02 16:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 the center of FRED was located near 19.8, -30.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 15
2015-09-02 16:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021436 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015 ...FRED EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 30.9W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 30.9 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Fred is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-09-02 16:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 021436 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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