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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-02 04:41:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MOVING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 1 the center of FRED was located near 19.4, -29.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-09-02 04:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020241 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 29.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 29.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 28.6W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.4N 31.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 33.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.4N 34.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 29.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-01 23:14:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 20:36:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 21:07:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-01 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 012036 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 Fred's weakening appears to have ceased for the moment. Deep convection developed just north of the center since the previous advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the day. A blend of the various Dvorak T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial intensity of 45 kt. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous forecast. Fred will be moving into an area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive thermodynamic environment. This should cause the tropical cyclone to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days. The global models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic. After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and northward in the low-level southeasterly flow. The model guidance has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward. The NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 18.8N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.4N 29.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 20.0N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.6N 32.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 22.0N 37.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 23.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 25.0N 42.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-09-01 22:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 012035 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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