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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 11

2015-09-01 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 011437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 ...FRED WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 27.0W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Fred is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Fred is forecast to become a tropical depression by late Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the extreme northwestern Cape Verde Islands this afternoon as Fred continues to move away from the area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-09-01 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011437 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and become less organized. The center has also become exposed to the south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Additional weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear, mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures. The tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in 36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this could occur sooner. Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic. This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the forecast period. The models that keep Fred stronger show the northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast. The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.3N 27.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.0N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.1N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 22.8N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 24.4N 38.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2015-09-01 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 011437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 11

2015-09-01 16:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 011436 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 27.0W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 27.0W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 26.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 28.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.8N 30.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 31.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.1N 33.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.8N 36.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.4N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 27.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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