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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 9A
2015-09-01 07:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010553 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 200 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015 ...FRED WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 25.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NW OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 25.7 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will continue to move away from the northwestern Cape Verde Islands today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the northwestern Cape Verde Islands within the warning area for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-09-01 05:14:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 02:41:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2015 03:07:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-01 04:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010240 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what thunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance. Although the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the diurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the cloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical storm. The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60 kt. As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment ahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear, progressively drier mid-level air and increased stability. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile future environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated here. The center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the initial motion is 310/10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Fred is forecast to build gradually westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest. A more westward track with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower cyclone steered more by the low-level flow. The official forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. This is also very similar to the previous NHC track forecast. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.9N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-01 04:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.9, -25.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 9
2015-09-01 04:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...FRED WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 25.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The meteorological service of the Cape Verde Islands has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia, and discontinued all warnings for the remainder of the Cape Verde Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolau, Santo Antao, and Santa Luzia in the Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 25.2 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the Cape Verde Islands within the warning area for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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