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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2015-09-01 04:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 010238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 9

2015-09-01 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010237 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAO VICENTE, SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA...AND DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO VICENTE...SAO NICOLAU...SANTO ANTAO...AND SANTA LUZIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 25.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 25.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N 29.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.1N 31.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 34.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 25.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane FRED Graphics

2015-09-01 01:52:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 23:52:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 21:07:47 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane FRED (AT1/AL062015)

2015-09-01 01:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 17.4, -25.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 8A

2015-09-01 01:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312351 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 800 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015 CORRECTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...CENTER OF FRED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 25.0W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF SANTO ANTAO IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 25.0 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will be moving away from the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the Cape Verde Islands for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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