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Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 7
2015-08-31 16:58:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311458 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 23.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 23.7 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early tonight while Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the northern Cape Verde Islands today. Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the northeastern Cape Verde Islands and are expected to spread northwestward over portions of the northern and northwestern Cape Verde Islands through tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-08-31 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311451 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Visible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate that Fred has a well-defined inner core. The outer banding that was noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite compact. A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC SSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity is raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and subjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively. Satellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of Boa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern eyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200 UTC this morning. The sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning to decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low for another 12 hours or so. Little change in strength is expected today. By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C and southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. This should cause gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours. The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. Fred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane should maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24 hours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over or very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou, Santa Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west- northwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. Fred should then maintain a west-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. According to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which begins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verde Islands since 1892. We caution, however, that the database is less reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward). Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 16.4N 23.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.3N 25.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 20.3N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 21.4N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 22.5N 37.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 24.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane FRED Graphics
2015-08-31 16:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 14:51:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 14:50:47 GMT
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Hurricane FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-08-31 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 311451 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane FRED Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-08-31 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 311450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 23.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 23.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 23.3W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.3N 25.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.6N 26.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 28.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.3N 30.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.4N 33.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 23.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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