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Hurricane FRED Graphics
2015-08-31 13:46:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 11:46:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-08-31 13:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE FRED BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Aug 31 the center of FRED was located near 16.1, -23.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 6A
2015-08-31 13:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311144 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 800 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...HURRICANE FRED BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 23.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 23.5 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early tonight while Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Gradually weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the Cape Verde Islands today. Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the easternmost Cape Verde Islands and are expected to spread northwestward over portions of the northern and northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations can be even greater. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane FRED Graphics
2015-08-31 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 08:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Hurricane FRED Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-08-31 10:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310836 TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's overall cloud pattern has only changed slightly since the previous advisory. However, the inner-core convection has increased markedly, including the development of a well-defined, vertically deep, 15 n mi diameter eye as noted in recent AMSR and AMSU passive microwave satellite data. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.4/75 kt, and a NHC objective Dvorak T-number of T4.5/77 kt. Fred has maintained a steady northwestward motion but has slowed down some, and is now moving 305/10 kt. The track forecast and rationale remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Water vapor-derived winds indicate that the break in the subtropical ridge to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is beginning to fill in based on previous southwesterly winds now having been replaced by east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level winds. Fred is expected to continue its northwestward motion for the next 12-24 hours and pass near or over the Cape Verde Islands of Boa Vista this morning, and over or near Sao Nicolau, Sao Vicente, and Santo Antao late this afternoon and into tonight. As the ridge builds steadily westward to the north of Fred, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the west-northwest by 36 hours and beyond. This will bring the cyclone over progressively cooler waters and into increasing vertical wind shear conditions. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. The vertical shear is expected to remain quite low at less than 5 kt for the next 12 hours as Fred is passing through the Cape Verde Islands archipelago. With ocean temperatures remaining above 27 deg C during that time, some additional strengthening is possible. After the hurricane clears the Cape Verde Islands, however, the combination of decreasing SSTs, decreasing mid-level moisture, and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model through 36 hours, and is lower than IVCN from 48-120 hours. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.6N 22.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 16.6N 24.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 17.9N 26.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 19.0N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 19.7N 29.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.8N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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