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Hurricane FRED Public Advisory Number 5A
2015-08-31 07:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310554 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 200 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 22.5W ABOUT 60 MI...110 KM SSE OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 22.5 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Fred will move through the Cape Verde Islands this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today as Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Cape Verde Islands in a few hours, with hurricane conditions by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
2015-08-31 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 02:44:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 31 Aug 2015 02:50:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-08-31 04:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310240 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 Fred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and microwave data show a well-defined inner core. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the past several hours, however. The current intensity estimate is 60 kt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical cyclone. The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface temperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so, and sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that the Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred. Given these conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to strengthen into a hurricane overnight. By 36 hours, vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should be underway by that time. Late in the forecast period, model guidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with the shear remaining strong. This should result in the cyclone degenerating to a depression by the end of the period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is the same as the previous one. Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery show that Fred continues on its northwestward trek. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous package. For the next few days, a weakening mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic should result in the tropical cyclone continuing northwestward with decreasing forward speed. Late in the forecast period, the ridge builds westward a bit and this, along with the weakening cyclone responding more to the lower-level flow, is likely to result in a turn to the left with time. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and lies on the southern side of the guidance suite. This is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 15.3N 22.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 16.2N 23.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 17.5N 25.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 18.8N 27.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 19.6N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 20.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-08-31 04:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 310240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-08-31 04:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 15.3, -22.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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