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Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-21 10:07:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 08:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2013 09:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-11-21 09:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210837 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013 EVEN THOUGH MELISSA IS CURRENTLY OVER QUITE COOL 21 C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE MAIN REASONS THE STORM IS ABLE TO REMAIN TROPICAL OVER THE COOL WATER IS BECAUSE OF THE COMBINED FACTORS OF A COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW MELISSA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20 C. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. MELISSA CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KT EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...FOLLOWING THE LATEST TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 39.1N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 41.5N 27.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 22/1800Z 42.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0600Z 42.2N 19.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0600Z 40.0N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-21 09:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH WHILE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of MELISSA was located near 39.1, -38.5 with movement ENE at 32 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-11-21 09:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 210836 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 8 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 17 26 40 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 79 71 60 40 NA NA HURRICANE 2 6 9 7 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 6 8 6 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 39 33(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-11-21 09:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210834 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 38.5W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 420SE 520SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 38.5W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.2N 33.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 41.5N 27.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.2N 22.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 19.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 60SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 40.0N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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