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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-11-20 21:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 202035 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 44.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 44.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 46.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 41.0N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 42.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 43.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-20 16:07:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 14:35:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-11-20 15:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 201434 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 MELISSA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CLOUD PATTERN EXHIBITS CURVED BANDS WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MELISSA HAS WEAKENED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ALSO CHANGED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE STORM IS NOW ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC FOREAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH IN FACT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 37.6N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 40.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 41.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/1200Z 42.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 42.0N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)
2013-11-20 15:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of MELISSA was located near 35.6, -47.7 with movement ENE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 9
2013-11-20 15:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 201434 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 ...MELISSA ACQUIRES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 47.7W ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MELISSA HAS MADE A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AND AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST. MELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA... PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA TODAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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