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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-11-19 03:57:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 190257 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 3 6 12 NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 5 5 11 17 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 92 74 60 63 62 52 NA HURRICANE 6 20 35 23 16 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 19 30 19 14 6 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 3 2 X NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-11-19 03:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190255 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 0300 UTC TUE NOV 19 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 54.7W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 540SE 540SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 54.7W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 54.6W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.8N 43.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 46.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 53.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 54.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Graphics
2013-11-18 22:07:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2013 20:47:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Nov 2013 21:03:45 GMT
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-11-18 21:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182053 TCDAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE INNER-CORE REGION... SUGGESTING THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES AT 1314Z AND 1408Z INDICATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED DOWN TO LESS THAN 80 NMI AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-51 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...BOTH OVERPASSES MISSED THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS COULD BE SMALLER AND THE PEAK WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER MELISSA PASSED JUST EAST OF DRIFTING BUOY 41999 AT 1000Z...WHICH REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 989.4 MB...THE PRESSURE AT THE BUOY HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW 993 MB SINCE ABOUT 1400Z AS MELISSA HAS MOVED FARTHER AWAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STILL BE DEEPENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 36 H. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 H. MELISSA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY THROUGH 120 H AND NOT BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRACK IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. MELISSA HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. ALTHOUGH SSTS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE CURRENT 27C TO AROUND 22-23C BY 36-48 H...THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR -13C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE FORMATION OF ADDITONAL CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE REGION. AS A RESULT...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE 850-200 MB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP SHARPLY FROM THE CURRENT 30 KT TO LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 18-24 H TIME FRAME...AND THAT IS WHEN THE CYCLONE COULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN OBTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS MELISSA MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C...INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 29.8N 54.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 30.7N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 32.3N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 34.9N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 38.0N 46.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 44.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 50.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 57.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2013-11-18 21:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 182053 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 2100 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 4 9 10 TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 6 9 15 25 27 TROPICAL STORM 84 63 61 57 61 57 54 HURRICANE 15 33 33 33 21 9 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 14 30 28 27 18 8 7 HUR CAT 2 1 3 4 5 3 1 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 60KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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