je.st

Home › melissa

Tag: melissa

Summary for Subtropical Storm MELISSA (AT4/AL142013)

2013-11-18 15:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Nov 18 the center of MELISSA was located near 29.3, -53.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tags: summary storm melissa subtropical

Subtropical Storm MELISSA Public Advisory Number 1

2013-11-18 15:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181454 TCPAT4 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013 CORRECTED TO ADD MENTION OF BERMUDA TO THE SURF STATEMENT ...SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 53.6W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BERMUDA...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY MELISSA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number public storm advisory

Subtropical Storm MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2013-11-18 15:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 181442 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 3 9 10 TROP DEPRESSION 2 4 5 9 14 24 27 TROPICAL STORM 92 73 59 56 61 58 54 HURRICANE 7 22 35 34 21 9 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 20 29 28 18 8 7 HUR CAT 2 1 2 4 5 3 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 60KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind storm

Subtropical Storm MELISSA Forecast Advisory Number 1

2013-11-18 15:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181438 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1500 UTC MON NOV 18 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 90SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.2N 54.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 100SE 100SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.6N 52.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.6N 48.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 42.8N 39.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT... 60NE 200SE 250SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 50.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 55.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 53.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number storm advisory forecast