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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 17
2014-05-26 22:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 262052 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 ...AMANDA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 111.8W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY OR POSSIBLY RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-05-26 22:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 262051 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 111.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 111.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-05-26 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261437 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014 Amanda has changed little during the past 6 hours, including an intermittent eye embedded within a ragged CDO feature containing cloud tops colder than -70C. A blend of final T-numbers and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT value of T6.3/122 kt, yields an average of 114 kt. Thus, the initial intensity of Amanda has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. Smoothing through the many fits and starts yields a 12-hour average motion of 345/04 kt, which is used for the advisory motion. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the previous advisory track or reasoning. Amanda is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to northward between a broad mid-level trough to its west and a weak subtropical ridge situated to its east over Mexico for the next 72 hours or so. After which some slow erratic motion is possible when the cyclone is expected to weaken into a shallow system and become trapped within weak steering currents. The global and regional models are in good agreement on this developing scenario. As a result, the official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and is close to the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model. The deep-layer vertical wind shear across Amanda is assessed at around 25 kt by both the GFS-based SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS, and these strong shear conditions are expected to continue for at least the next 36 hours. As a result, steady to rapid weakening is forecast to begin later today, especially if significant cold upwelling develops beneath the slow-moving hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 16.1N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 16.8N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-05-26 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 261433 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 1(20) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-26 16:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA WEAKENS BUT REMAINS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon May 26 the center of AMANDA was located near 13.2, -111.6 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 135 mph.
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