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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 14

2014-05-26 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 260237 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 ...AMANDA MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 111.4W ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY OR POSSIBLY RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2014-05-26 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260237 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 5(21) 1(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 14

2014-05-26 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260237 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC MON MAY 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 111.4W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 111.4W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2014-05-25 22:42:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 252042 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda likely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has started weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size and become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the small eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible imagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda possessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall replacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been decreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB and SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS ADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to T6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity. Amanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt. The hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the next 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly steering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a weak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is forecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone that could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward when it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical ridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward this cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter model is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that initialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4 hurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to the previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern portion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model. Cold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should slowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so. An eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to hasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination of cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind shear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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