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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-25 11:07:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 May 2014 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 May 2014 09:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-05-25 10:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250839 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 Amanda is still rapidly intensifying. The eye has become more distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C surround the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively. A blend of these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for intensification. After that time, however, southerly shear is expected to increase and that should start the weakening process. The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and mid-level centers eventually decoupling. Gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity model consensus IVCN. The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4. A turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east. A northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to the west of Amanda gets closer to the system. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest FSSE and TVCE guidance. Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record, behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-05-25 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 250833 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 1(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-25 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun May 25 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.7, -110.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 11
2014-05-25 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014 ...AMANDA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 110.9W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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