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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-05-25 10:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 250832 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC SUN MAY 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 110.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 110.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-25 05:07:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 May 2014 02:39:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 May 2014 03:03:44 GMT
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Hurricane AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-05-25 04:47:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 250247 TCDEP1 HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 Amanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours, with the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the last several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates include a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special 02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z. Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100 kt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the latest infrared images. Additional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the guidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours, steady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters increasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and SSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the period is close to the intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn northwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level ridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued slow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves between a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and remains along the east side of the track guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to the FSU Superensemble. The operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than 100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major hurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only Hurricane Bud of 2012. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Hurricane AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-25 04:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat May 24 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.6, -110.7 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane AMANDA Public Advisory Number 10
2014-05-25 04:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 250239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014 ...AMANDA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 110.7W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY...AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AMANDA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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