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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-05-24 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 240232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Amanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep convection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center position, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the development of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems likely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the favorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the next day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or less for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58 percent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply upward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in intensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours, the shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should result in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most of the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity consensus after that time. The initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues to move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual northward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster this cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-05-24 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 240232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 9 7(16) 7(23) 4(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-24 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri May 23 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.2, -109.1 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Public Advisory Number 6
2014-05-24 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 240231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 ...AMANDA STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 109.1W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-05-24 04:31:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 240231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC SAT MAY 24 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 109.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 109.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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