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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-23 23:24:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 20:32:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 21:24:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-05-23 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Visible and microwave imagery suggest that Amanda's low- and mid-level circulation centers may be offset from each other due to some southerly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. However, convective banding continues to increase, and overall the system is taking on a more circular appearance. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. With relatively light shear and sea surface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue strengthening at least for the next 3 days or so. The intensity guidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in line with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching hurricane status in a few days. The SHIPS RI index continues to run high, and several of the models suggest that Amanda could reach hurricane strength by 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward, but further modifications may be required in future advisories if faster intensification appears to be setting in. Amanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level anticyclone centered over Mexico, and the initial motion is 290/3 kt. With the anticyclone expected to weaken further, Amanda is likely to creep west-northwestward for the next 2 to 3 days. The global models indicate that a mid-level low will form along 130W by day 3, and that feature should help turn Amanda toward the north at a slightly faster speed by the end of the forecast period. With the exception of the HWRF model, the remainder of the track guidance agrees on this slow northward turn. The track guidance envelope has contracted a bit, and no significant changes to the previous NHC track were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.0N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-05-23 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 232031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) CLIPPERTON IS 34 17 8(25) 5(30) 4(34) 5(39) 2(41) X(41) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-23 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...AMANDA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri May 23 the center of AMANDA was located near 11.0, -108.8 with movement WNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Public Advisory Number 5
2014-05-23 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 232031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 ...AMANDA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 108.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. AMANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AMANDA COULD BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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