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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2014-05-23 22:31:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 232030 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 2100 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 108.8W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 108.8W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Graphics
2014-05-23 17:07:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 14:47:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 15:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-05-23 16:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 231456 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...RETRANSMITTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Convection has been gradually filling in near the center and taking on a more pronounced banding structure during the past few hours. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt at 1200 UTC, but the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are running around 40 kt. In addition, recent AMSU intensity estimates yielded 38 kt and 44 kt. Based on the higher objective numbers, and the overall increase in convective organization since 1200 UTC, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda at this time. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt based on a consensus of the subjective and objective numbers. Amanda's initial motion is a slow 295/4 kt. The storm is located to the southwest of a fairly weak mid-level anticyclone over central Mexico and to the south of a large deep-layer low over southern California. The anticyclone is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days, while the deep-layer low slides almost due eastward across the southwestern U.S. As a result, Amanda is expected to remain in weak steering flow, and its motion should remain less than 5 kt during the next 5 days. Amanda is now expected to turn northward by day 5 due to mid-level ridging redeveloping over Mexico and a mid-level low forming near 130W. The GFS has had the most dramatic shift in track since yesterday and now shows Amanda turning northward by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted a bit to the right of the previous one now that there is a little more agreement among the models on a northward turn. Amanda is expected to remain in a relatively light-shear environment for the next 3 days or so, and therefore at least gradual strengthening is anticipated. Although upwelling of cold water could be a concern due to Amanda's slow forecast motion, upper ocean heat content is expected to increase along the cyclone's path. Due to these favorable conditions, the SHIPS RI index still supports a significant potential (about a 50 percent chance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours) of rapid intensification. All of the models have been trending toward a higher peak intensity, led by the SHIPS and GFDL, which both make Amanda a hurricane by 48 hours. The new NHC forecast is not quite that aggressive, but it does now show Amanda reaching hurricane strength in about 3 days or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm AMANDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-05-23 16:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 231445 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 1500 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CLIPPERTON IS 34 26 11(37) 4(41) 2(43) 4(47) 2(49) 1(50) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm AMANDA (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-23 16:46:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri May 23 the center of AMANDA was located near 10.9, -108.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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