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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 16

2015-09-09 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.2W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.2W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.9N 53.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.4N 56.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.9N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression GRACE Graphics

2015-09-09 04:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:50:46 GMT

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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-09-09 04:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090237 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 Grace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near and south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass shows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be a little generous. The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it is moving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly vertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72 hours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling for Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate completely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most of the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave before 72 hours. The initial motion remains 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants quickly westward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.3N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)

2015-09-09 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.6, -45.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)

2015-09-08 23:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.4, -44.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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