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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-08 16:31:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.3, -42.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-08 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 08:40:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 08:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-09-08 10:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080839 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 The deep convection that developed during the evening hours has expanded in coverage overnight, but very little banding or overall organization of the thunderstorm activity exists. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, which is supported by a TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate and a UW/CIMSS ADT current intensity number. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air along the forecast track should cause Grace to weaken during the next few days. Grace is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low within the next couple of days. The system is expected to degenerate to a trough by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean. Given the fast motion of the system and the expected hostile conditions, this could occur much sooner than shown in the official forecast. The initial motion estimate remains 275/17 kt. Grace or its remnant is forecast to continue moving quickly westward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge that is over the central Atlantic. The model guidance is again tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 14.1N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.2N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.9N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 15.3N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z 16.3N 60.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-08 10:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.1, -41.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-09-08 10:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080838 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 41.0W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 41.0W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 40.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 43.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.5N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.3N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.3N 60.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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