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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-08 04:55:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 02:53:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 02:54:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-09-08 04:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080252 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015 After being devoid of any significant convection near the center for almost 6 hours, a small burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has developed since 0000 UTC just south of and over the previously exposed low-level circulation center. This recent convective development is the reason for keeping Grace as a 35-kt tropical storm. This intensity is supported by a Dvorak current intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a couple of 32-kt ASCAT-B wind vectors. The initial motion estimate is 275/17 kt. There is essentially no change to the previous forecast reasonings over the past couple of days. Grace is expected to gradually weaken and become more vertically shallow, and be steered quickly westward by the moderate low-level easterly trade wind flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The official track forecast is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. With increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an abundance of dry mid-level air ahead of Grace, steady weakening is expected due to these hostile environmental conditions. The only saving grace is the cyclone's robust low-level circulation, which could force periodic bursts of deep convection for the next 24 hours or so, similar to the most recent convective development. However, by 36 hours and beyond, westerly shear in excess of 25 kt should cause the circulation to weaken significantly due to less frequent and shorter duration convective bursts. Degeneration into a remnant low is expected by 48 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours. However, dissipation could occur sooner, similar to the ECMWF model solution. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.0N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.3N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 14.7N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.1N 51.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 58.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-08 04:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of GRACE was located near 14.0, -39.2 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 11
2015-09-08 04:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080252 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015 ...GRACE WEAKENS A LITTLE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 39.2W ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 39.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Grace is forecast to become a tropical depression on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-09-08 04:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 080252 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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