je.st
news
Tag: grace
Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-09-07 16:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071436 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 Grace's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat this morning, with the deep convection becoming fragmented and banding features less evident than they were yesterday. The initial intensity is adjusted downward to 40 kt in agreement with data from a recent ASCAT overpass, and in line with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. An upper-level trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone is producing some west-southwesterly vertical shear on Grace. The SHIPS model indicates that the shear will increase over the next several days, which should inhibit strengthening. The official intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This is similar to the intensity model consensus, IVCN, but given the current state of the system, Grace could weaken faster than indicated here. The storm is moving a little more quickly toward the west this morning, and the motion estimate is 275/15 kt. For the next several days, Grace will continue to be steered by the low- to mid-level flow to the south of the subtropical ridge. The GFS and ECMWF global models show a rather brisk westward motion, perhaps partially because the system opens up into a wave in the model predictions. The official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and close to the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 15.5N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.3N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 17.0N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
grace
storm
Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-07 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE WEST... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of GRACE was located near 13.7, -35.9 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
grace
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 9
2015-09-07 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 ...GRACE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 35.9W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 35.9 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A continued westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
grace
storm
Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-09-07 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 071435 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 9
2015-09-07 16:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071435 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 35.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.9N 38.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 35.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
grace
storm
advisory
Sites : [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] [71] [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] next »