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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-07 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 02:50:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 02:50:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-07 04:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070250 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 A partial ASCAT-B overpass at 2346 UTC, along with several passive microwave passes, indicates that Grace has a well-developed, compact low-level circulation that extends upward into the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, both conventional and microwave imagery also indicate that the inner-core convection has been significantly disrupted by the entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western and southern quadrants of the circulation, and has penetrated into the cyclone's center. The initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be generous, is based on Dvorak current intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a 40-kt ASCAT-B wind vector. Grace's motion continues to be 280/13 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to move a little north of due west throughout the forecast period due to moderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on the south side of a large subtropical ridge located to the north of Grace. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the previous advisory track, so the new forecast is just an update and extension of the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model, TVCN. Grace's fairly robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry air intrusions for the next 24 hours or so while the vertical wind shear remains low and, therefore, a return of inner-core deep convection is expected later tonight. Shortly after that time, however, the vertical shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to increase to 25-30 kt from a westerly direction and for the mid-level humidity to decrease to near 40 percent, a combination that will halt any intensification and induce a steady weakening trend despite warm SSTs of near 28 deg C beneath the cyclone. The official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory forecast, and is similar to the intensity consensus model, IVCN. It is worth noting that the GFS and ECMWF models show significant weakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with possible dissipation occurring by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.3N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.8N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.0N 40.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 15.3N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.1N 56.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 17.2N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-07 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of GRACE was located near 13.3, -32.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 7
2015-09-07 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 ...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 32.5W ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 32.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a continued general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening therafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-07 04:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 070249 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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