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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-06 10:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:40:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:52:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-06 10:40:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060840 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Deep convection has become better organized during the past several hours, with a more pronounced curved band developing to the west and south of the center. Recent microwave imagery, especially a 0331 UTC GCOM pass, showed a surprisingly well-organized inner core, with the low-level center located a little farther south than previous estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt. If Grace is as well organized as suggested by the microwave data, this intensity could be conservative. With the slight southward adjustment of the initial position, the estimated motion is now 270/11 kt. Grace is located due south of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone, and a ridge axis extends westward across the Atlantic to north of the Lesser Antilles. This pattern is expected to change little during the forecast period, which should keep Grace on a general westward path through day 5. The guidance is in generally good agreement, and the updated NHC track is shifted a little bit south of the previous forecast, mainly to account for the adjusted initial position. This solution is a bit south of the TVCN model consensus and leans closest to the GFS, HWRF, and the Florida State Superensemble. Grace will be moving through a low-shear environment for the next 36 to 48 hours, which is likely to support additional strengthening while it moves westward over the tropical eastern Atlantic. Between days 3 through 5, while Grace is moving over the central tropical Atlantic, vertical shear is forecast to increase to over 20 kt and veer from southwesterly to westerly by the end of the forecast period. Such a hostile environment should induce weakening beginning on day 3. The new NHC intensity forecast indicates continued gradual strengthening through 36 hours while the shear is low and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast. Weakening could be fast once the shear sets in, and the day 4 and 5 intensities are unchanged from before. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 12.4N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 12.6N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 12.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 13.1N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 13.4N 39.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 14.0N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 14.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 15.5N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-06 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of GRACE was located near 12.4, -28.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-06 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 ...GRACE STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 28.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-09-06 10:39:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 060839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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