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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-06 05:18:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 02:44:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 03:08:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-06 04:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060244 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Most of the deep convection associated with Grace is located west and southwest of the estimated center position, consistent with light-to-moderate easterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Grace will be moving over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next 24 to 36 hours, which should support some strengthening. After that time, the shear becomes westerly and increases with the cyclone moving over slightly cooler waters. As a result, much of the intensity guidance suggests that Grace will weaken later in the period, with dissipation also possible. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 280/12. Grace should continue moving generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a subtropical ridge for the next several days. The track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is some variability in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and lies a little south of the consensus given that Grace is forecast to be weaker by the end of the period. This track is close to the latest predictions from the GFS model and the FSU Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 13.3N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 13.6N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 14.1N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.8N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 15.3N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-06 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of GRACE was located near 12.8, -27.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-06 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 27.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 27.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-06 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 060242 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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