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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-06 04:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060242 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 27.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 27.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 26.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.0N 29.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.3N 32.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.6N 35.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 38.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 44.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 49.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 27.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-05 23:17:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 20:32:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 21:08:37 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-05 22:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of GRACE was located near 12.6, -26.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-05 22:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052051 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 26.4W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 26.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, with weakening possible by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-05 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052032 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has gradually increased in organization since the last advisory. A band over the southwestern portion of the circulation has taken more shape, with cloud tops cooling slightly during the last several hours. Microwave and conventional satellite imagery also suggest that some inner-core structural organization has already developed. Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5/ 35 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, so the initial intensity estimate is 35 kt. Large-scale conditions should be conducive for some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours, with the depression embedded in an environment of light easterly shear and over warm SSTs. The one caveat is that a general drying of the lower to middle troposphere in the near-storm environment is forecast, possibly due to increasing subsidence, which could squelch additional strengthening. After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to encounter westerly flow aloft associated with an enhanced upper-level trough extending from near the Antilles to the eastern tropical Atlantic. This pattern should produce enough vertical shear to cause weakening or possibly even dissipation by day 4 or 5 of the forecast. The new intensity forecast shows slightly greater intensification in the short term relative to the previous one, with a peak in 36 hours, and greater weakening at the end of the forecast. The initial motion estimate is 280/12. A low- to mid-level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic should keep the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward track throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast is faster than the previous one, especially at the extended range, and on the south side of guidance envelope in best agreement with the FSU Superensemble and ECMWF model solution. This makes intuitive sense, since a weaker system would likely track farther south and move faster. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 12.6N 26.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 28.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 13.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 13.5N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.9N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 14.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 15.1N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 15.7N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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