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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-09-25 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 250831 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 20(21) 2(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 13(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-09-25 10:31:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 250830 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.6W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.6W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-25 05:08:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 02:44:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 03:04:42 GMT
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-25 04:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250241 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014 Vigorous deep convection has expanded in association with the tropical cyclone this evening, primarily in the southwestern semicircle. The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around the system is due to about 25 kt of northeasterly vertical shear being caused by a strong upper-level anticyclone to its north. The current intensity is based upon 35 kt estimates from both the Satellite Analysis Branch and the Advanced Dvorak Technique, though the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch suggests a slightly stronger system. Thus the cyclone is now named Tropical Storm Rachel. The system may gradually intensify during the next two to three days as the shear diminishes some. However, Rachel should also encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and drier low-level air as it moves toward the west-northwest. The system is expected to peak in intensity as a moderate tropical storm around day 2 or 3, followed by a gradual weakening. The NHC official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN multi-model ensemble and is about the same as the previous advisory. The earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass suggested a radius of maximum wind of around 40 nm, which helped to define the tropical-storm- force wind radii now that the cyclone has strengthened. The global and regional hurricane models suggest that Rachel will remain rather small in size. A blend of these models with the climatology- persistence technique is the basis for the NHC wind radii predictions. A 2333Z SSMIS microwave image assisted in locating the center of Rachel, as the low-level swirl has remain tucked just under the convective overcast. Rachel is moving toward the west at about 10 kt. The tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest during the next two days as it moves around the periphery of the mid-level subtropical ridge. In about three days, a strong short wave trough will be passing north of Rachel over California. The new 18Z GFS and the hurricane models run from it respond by turning Rachel northeastward toward Baja California, while the older 12Z ECMWF and UK Met Office global models continue moving a weaker Rachel west-northwestward. The NHC official track splits the difference and is slightly eastward from that of the previous advisory, but not as far eastward as the TVCE multi-model ensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.3N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.8N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 19.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 21.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-25 04:41:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL...THE 17TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR...DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 the center of RACHEL was located near 15.3, -107.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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