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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 7

2018-10-08 10:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NAVARRE FLORIDA TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANEE RIVER TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND FLORIDA... INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 85.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 85.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 85.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Michael (AT4/AL142018)

2018-10-08 07:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 the center of Michael was located near 20.1, -85.5 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 6A

2018-10-08 07:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018 ...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be required for a portion of this area today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of Mexico within the warning area. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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