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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-10-08 04:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 080256 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 5(32) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) RALEIGH NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 18(43) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 5(40) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 11(40) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 14(46) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 12(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 7(43) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 7(43) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 7(48) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 3(45) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 2(48) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 5(47) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 4(51) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) 3(49) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) 2(53) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57) 1(58) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) X(36) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 39(54) 1(55) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 40(61) X(61) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 1(25) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 26(59) X(59) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 29(70) X(70) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) X(34) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 19(56) X(56) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 21(58) X(58) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 12(60) X(60) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 12(39) 1(40) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 35(39) 10(49) X(49) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 23(26) 8(34) X(34) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 7(23) X(23) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) X(24) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 4(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) KEY WEST FL 34 4 9(13) 8(21) 5(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 10(20) 2(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 19(32) 2(34) X(34) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 32(41) 4(45) X(45) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 51(67) 4(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 4(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 12(81) X(81) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 12(49) X(49) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 67(72) 10(82) X(82) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 11(49) 1(50) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 66(84) 3(87) X(87) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 3(57) X(57) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 57(89) 2(91) X(91) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 2(61) X(61) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 1(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 61(77) 3(80) X(80) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 4(48) X(48) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 2(26) X(26) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 48(58) 4(62) X(62) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 3(30) X(30) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 18(52) X(52) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 9(36) X(36) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 6(45) X(45) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 6(43) X(43) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 37(65) 1(66) X(66) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 2(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 36 4(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 81 16(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 31 41(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 2 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HAVANA 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLE OF PINES 34 33 7(40) 3(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-10-08 04:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080257 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of 60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC. The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable differences between the models that will ultimately determine where and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection, associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous advisory track on days 3-5. Michael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center. This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall. Key Messages: 1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.0N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL 96H 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-08 04:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Michael was located near 20.0, -85.4 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 6
2018-10-08 04:56:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080256 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be required for a portion of this area on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-10-08 04:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080256 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W...INLAND ERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 85.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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