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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2018-10-07 23:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 072100 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 4(24) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 11(29) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 10(34) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 6(31) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 3(33) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 9(36) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 4(36) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 3(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 1(31) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 2(39) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 3(44) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 31(41) 1(42) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 37(50) 1(51) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 27(41) 2(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 30(42) 1(43) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 25(44) 1(45) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 19(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 15(26) X(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 6(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 7(26) X(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 13(34) X(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 14(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 32(64) X(64) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) X(32) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 28(64) 1(65) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) X(32) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 15(75) X(75) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 14(43) 1(44) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 56(67) 11(78) X(78) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 11(45) X(45) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 53(57) 16(73) X(73) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 15(42) X(42) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 14(62) 1(63) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 13(31) X(31) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) X(43) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) X(34) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 17(47) X(47) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 15(46) 1(47) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 51(62) 8(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 7(40) X(40) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) X(18) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 3(41) X(41) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 7 20(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 21 60(81) 10(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 29(29) 17(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 8 18(26) 7(33) 2(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) GRAND CAYMAN 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 5

2018-10-07 23:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072100 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 5

2018-10-07 22:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 072058 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE... INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 85.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 85.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 4A

2018-10-07 19:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071743 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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