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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 45

2019-09-23 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 135.8W ABOUT 1755 MI...2825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 135.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Kiko could begin to turn back toward the west in a few days as it weakens. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 25

2019-09-23 16:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 6

2019-09-23 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by Tuesday morning. Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 24A

2019-09-23 13:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231151 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 24A NWS Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY SLOWS AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 67.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 67.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Jerry's maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. Swells will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 5A

2019-09-23 13:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 487 WTNT32 KNHC 231151 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KAREN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 64.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 64.4 West. Karen is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 8 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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