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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-14 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140236 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 CORRECTED SPELLING OF ALTAMAHA SOUND IN SUMMARY SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PONTE VEDRA BEACH... FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. IN THIS CASE...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 81.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 81.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 81.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 the center of JULIA was located near 30.3, -81.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-14 04:35:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140234 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 CORRECTED SPELLING OF ALTAMAHA SOUND IN SUMMARY SECTION ...TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORMS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SLOW-MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 81.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ponte Vedra Beach to Altamaha Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. In this case, tropical storm conditions are already occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 81.6 West. Julia is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue tonight with a reduction in forward speed tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Little change in strength is expected tonight. Julia is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by late Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. Recent observations indicate that sustained tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along the northeast coast of Florida from Ponte Vedra northward to the mouth of the St. Johns River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the tropical storm warning area. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near the northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina coastlines through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and stream discharges. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible tonight through Wednesday morning across parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Franklin
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-14 04:27:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140226 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016 The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection, accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right of much of the objective track guidance. That trend is forecast to continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the HWRF. With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and begins to weaken. Nevertheless, a small area of tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 30.3N 81.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1200Z 31.2N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 31.8N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 32.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 82.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Franklin
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-14 04:24:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 140224 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0300 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 8 9(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) KINGS BAY GA 34 47 3(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) KINGS BAY GA 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 21 10(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WAYCROSS GA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) JACKSONVILLE 34 36 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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