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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45

2017-09-16 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 161441 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 3(18) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 3(26) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 3(29) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 32(38) 7(45) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 6(50) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) 3(35) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 2(26) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 2(26) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 2(25) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 22(30) 3(33) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 2(37) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) 1(24) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 5(25) X(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) 1(22) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 10(26) 1(27) X(27) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 45

2017-09-16 16:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161441 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 72.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 72.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 72.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.5N 72.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.8N 72.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.2N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-16 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Jose was located near 28.8, -72.2 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 45

2017-09-16 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...JOSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 72.2W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Tropical storm watches may be needed for portions of this area during the next day or two. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 72.2 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected by tonight, and a northward motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will move over the western Atlantic Ocean between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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