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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 38
2017-09-14 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 38
2017-09-14 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 67.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 67.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Jose Graphics
2017-09-14 16:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:51:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 14:51:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-09-14 16:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141448 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Satellite images show that Jose remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The center of the cyclone is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, with any significant banding features in the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose has weakened slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Using fixes from early-morning microwave data, Jose appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt due to a building mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. Jose should gradually turn northwestward by the weekend and northward early next week while it moves around the ridge. A trough currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to play a key role in how close Jose comes to the eastern United States. Some of the model solutions show the trough tugging on the tropical cyclone, causing a more north-northwestward motion at the end of the period, while others have the trough deflecting the cyclone more out to sea. While it is too early for details at this point, the model guidance is generally west of the previous forecast, so the new NHC prediction is shifted to the left, about 60 n mi west-southwest of previous forecast at day 5. Vertical shear is forecast to lessen in about a day near Jose, so restrengthening is expected to commence on Friday since the cyclone is over warm water. After day 3, Jose will be interacting with the aforementioned Lower Mississippi Valley trough, which will probably cause an increase in shear, although some baroclinic energy could lessen those effects. Although the official intensity forecast shows little change at the end of the period, the model guidance does show Jose becoming larger and more spread out as it interacts with the trough. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.1N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.7N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 72.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 32.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 35.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2017-09-14 16:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 141446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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