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Summary for Tropical Storm Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-14 16:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 14 the center of Jose was located near 24.9, -66.6 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Jose Public Advisory Number 37
2017-09-14 16:45:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...JOSE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 66.6W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Advisory Number 37
2017-09-14 16:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141445 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 66.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.1N 67.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.7N 70.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 32.4N 72.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 35.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-14 10:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:44:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Sep 2017 08:44:10 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 36
2017-09-14 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140837 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level center was displaced to the south of the low-level center. Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt. I expect little change in strength through the forecast period. Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so the new NHC forecast reflects that. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt. Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed, there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 25.1N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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