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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE JOSE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 14 the center of Jose was located near 25.1, -66.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 36

2017-09-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 ...HURRICANE JOSE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 66.5W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 66.5 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the several days, but Jose could weaken to a Tropical Storm by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2017-09-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 140836 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 36

2017-09-14 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140836 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 66.5W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 66.5W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 66.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 66.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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