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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 35
2017-09-14 04:44:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140243 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Deep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated location of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with moderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then increase further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected during the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in intensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a mid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic energy to maintain the cyclone's intensity in an environment of higher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose now appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical ridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering mechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence from the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern should cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72 hours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by days 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies roughly between the GFS and ECMWF models. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 25.2N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 27.0N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 28.0N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 33.7N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 36.6N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2017-09-14 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 140241 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-14 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE NOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND A BIT STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 13 the center of Jose was located near 25.2, -66.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 35
2017-09-14 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 ...JOSE NOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AND A BIT STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 66.0W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 66.0 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the west- northwest and then toward the northwest is expected during the next 48 hours, along with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Jose could become a tropical storm in the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 35
2017-09-14 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140239 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 66.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 66.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 69.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N 69.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 36.6N 68.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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