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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-13 22:40:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:40:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:40:17 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-09-13 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132031 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago, with less evidence of banding features. The intensity is kept at 65 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite strong by days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast shows a little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here. Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic loop while drifting slowly southward. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid- level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the middle of the reliable guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 25.3N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.4N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 30.3N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 33.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-09-13 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 132031 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-13 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 13 the center of Jose was located near 25.3, -65.6 with movement S at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 34
2017-09-13 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 132030 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 ...JOSE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 65.6W ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 65.6 West. Jose is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h), but is expected to complete a slow clockwise loop during the next couple of days, and is forecast to be moving west-northwestward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose could weaken to a tropical storm in a couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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