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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 34
2017-09-13 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 132030 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 65.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 65.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 65.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.4N 66.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.3N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-13 16:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:46:41 GMT
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-13 16:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 13 the center of Jose was located near 25.5, -65.6 with movement SE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 33
2017-09-13 16:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 ...JOSE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 65.6W ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 65.6 West. Jose is moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), but it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west-northwestward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2017-09-13 16:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 131439 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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