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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 33
2017-09-13 16:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 131438 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 65.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 65.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 65.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.4N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-13 11:27:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 13 the center of Jose was located near 26.1, -66.0 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 32
2017-09-13 11:27:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130926 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 32...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 CORRECTED MOTION PARAGRAPH ...JOSE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 66.0W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 66.0 West. Jose is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but it is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 36 to 48 hours, moving west- northwestward by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-13 10:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 08:56:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 09:22:47 GMT
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-09-13 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Jose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical shear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is at the northern edge of the convective mass. While the current organization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength, the various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt. Thus, Jose remains a hurricane for this advisory. The GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7. A large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is responsible for this motion. However, this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest, north, and eventually northeast. This evolution should cause Jose to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement for this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its Florida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along 75W by 120 h. However, there still remains a significant spread between that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which has Jose closer to 67W by that time. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged just a little to the west of the previous track. The 72-120 h portion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other consensus models. There is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. First, the large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to persist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at about 36-48 h. However, none of the intensity guidance shows weakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h. Second, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake of colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h. Third, Jose should encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may give the system a kick through baroclinic processes. Indeed, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure from 72-120 h. Based on the overall trend of the guidance, the intensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to show little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening thereafter. However, this is a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 25.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 28.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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