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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-11 16:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE PASSING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 11 the center of Jose was located near 25.5, -69.1 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 25
2017-09-11 16:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 ...JOSE PASSING WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 69.1W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the southeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce high surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 25
2017-09-11 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111446 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 69.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 69.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.6N 69.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 67.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.7N 66.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 10NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.1N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.6N 70.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 26.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 69.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-11 11:04:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 09:04:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 09:04:51 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-09-11 10:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110854 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017 Although Jose's satellite appearance is somewhat degraded due to the effects of northeasterly shear estimated to be near 25 kt, it has been able to maintain persistent deep convection over the center. A well-timed 0456Z GPM overpass helped to confirm that the center was on the north side of the cold cloud tops while also highlighting that an eye feature persists despite being obscured in conventional imagery. Subjective and objective satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Jose continues on a weakening trend, and this supports lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be 335/09 kt as Jose continues to track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As this ridge shifts to the southeast and south of Jose over the next 12 to 24 hours, its forward motion will slow, and the system will begin to move toward the northeast. On days 2 and 3 a ridge will begin to strengthen to the northwest of Jose, driving the system toward the southeast. By day 4 the ridge will move to a position north of Jose, which will gradually accelerate Jose toward the west-northwest through day 5. The expectation is that Jose will complete a small clockwise loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic the next couple of days. Despite the complex forecast track, this general solution is shared by all the reliable model guidance. The official track forecast is shifted slightly north from the previous one due to a northward shift in the ECMWF guidance, and is close to the GFEX consensus model. The northeasterly shear currently over Jose will shift to the northwest and will ease a little, but remain strong enough to keep Jose on a weakening trend through day 3. Although SSTs in the area are warm enough to support an intense hurricane, a slow-moving and looping Jose will likely move over its own cold wake around day 3, as seen in HWRF guidance. On days 4 and 5, Jose will move toward warmer water while the shear relaxes, and there is a potential for reintensification. The latest intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus, but it is more aggressive in weakening Jose than the SHIPS model, which is not accounting for interaction with the cold wake. A 1222Z ASCAT pass sampled Jose nearly perfectly, and the 34/50 kt wind radii were adjusted based on this data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 68.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 25.8N 69.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 26.8N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 27.0N 67.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 26.3N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 24.5N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 26.5N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard
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