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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-10 13:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING... ...NOAA BUOY REPORTS WIND GUST TO 110 MPH... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Sep 10 the center of Jose was located near 21.2, -65.3 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 20A
2017-09-10 13:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 101149 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 ...JOSE PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING... ...NOAA BUOY REPORTS WIND GUST TO 110 MPH... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 65.3W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNW OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 65.3 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours. A slower forward motion is expected later Monday into Tuesday as Jose begins to make a turn toward the north. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA Buoy 41043 recently reported a one-minute sustained wind of 90 mph and a peak wind gust of 110 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). NOAA Buoy 41043 recently reported a minimum pressure of 963 mb (28.45 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and will begin to affect Hispaniola, portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard/Brown
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-10 11:06:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 09:06:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2017 09:29:47 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-10 10:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100858 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017 Jose remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with a 15 n mi wide eye continuing to be surrounded a solid ring of deep convection. Little significant change in the overall satellite appearance has been observed since a Hurricane Hunter plane sampled the cyclone earlier in the night, and the initial intensity remains unchanged at 115 kt. The initial motion is 310/14 kt, with Jose's track through the first 24 hours being driven by a mid-level ridge located to the north-northeast of the cyclone. After this time, the steering pattern is expected to become rather dynamic, leading to a 5-day forecast that shows Jose making a small anticyclonic loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic. This occurs as the ridge shifts to the east of Jose from 36 to 48 hours, leading to a reduction in forward speed, and a gradual turn toward the north. A turn toward the east and southeast is expected on days 3 and 4, with an even slower forward motion, as the ridge weakens and moves south of the system. Late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to build to the northwest and then north of Jose, leading to a gradual acceleration toward the west, and a reduction in the shear. With such a complex steering pattern expected, it comes as no surprise that the track guidance diverges significantly in the latter forecast periods. The updated forecast is close to the previous one, lies close to the FSSE, and is in between the GFS and ECMWF, which are more than 250 miles apart on day 5. The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, but north to northeasterly shear is forecast to increase in the short term and remain relatively strong through 48 hours due to Jose moving closer to a building ridge to its northwest. This will lead to a weakening trend, despite the system remaining over SSTs near 29 Celsius. The official intensity forecast is nudged down ever so slightly from the previous one through day 3, but remains higher than the SHIPS model, due to the ECMWF and GFS models maintaining a more intense system. The intensity prediction on days 4 and 5 remains unchanged due to forecast environmental uncertainties at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.8N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 22.2N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.2N 67.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 25.6N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 26.5N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 26.3N 67.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 24.5N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard/Blake
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-09-10 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 100849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 19(23) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 18(25) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 14(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) PONCE PR 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER WPC FORECASTER
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