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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-09 13:58:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 11:58:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:29:30 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 13:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 17.8, -60.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 944 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 16A
2017-09-09 13:56:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091155 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...JOSE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 60.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has downgraded the Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Antigua. The government of Antigua has downgraded the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua to a Tropical Storm Watch. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John * Antigua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 60.7 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-09 10:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 08:58:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 09:29:30 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090853 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 There has been some weakening of the inner core this morning, specifically, considerable warming of the cloud tops and partial erosion of the western portion of the eyewall. Indications from earlier microwave passes and radar imagery from the Leeward Island of Guadeloupe reveal the possibility of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). Subsequently, the initial intensity is generously lowered to 130 kt for this advisory. An aircraft reconnaissance mission later this morning will provide a more accurate measure of Jose's intensity. Whether or not Jose completes the ERC cycle during the next several hours is uncertain. Regardless of the inner core structural transition, Jose is still forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it closely approaches the northern Leeward Islands today. Statistical and dynamical intensity guidance show gradual weakening of the cyclone through day 5 as a result of increasing northerly shear and drier, more stable mid-tropospheric air associated with an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest of the cyclone. The official forecast is above all of the available guidance through 24 hours, then corresponds to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. The eye of Jose is expected to turn northwestward and pass just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Jose should slow down and turn north-northwestward in 72 hours in response to the aforementioned deep-layer mid-level trough. Large-scale models have come in alignment with the trough leaving Jose behind to meander in weaker mid-level westerly flow through day 5. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous package and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 17.5N 60.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 19.9N 63.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.5N 65.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 23.1N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 25.7N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 67.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 26.4N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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