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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 15
2017-09-09 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090242 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER... ...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 59.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur overnight and on Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-09-09 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090242 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 59.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..255NE 135SE 165SW 195NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 59.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 58.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.8W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 62.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.4N 66.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.3N 68.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 26.8N 68.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 66.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 59.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-09-09 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 090242 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) VIEQUES PR 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 8( 9) 13(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 71(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAINT MAARTEN 50 1 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 4 27(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 83 10(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BARBUDA 50 12 40(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) BARBUDA 64 2 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ANTIGUA 34 34 20(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ANTIGUA 50 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-09 01:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 23:53:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 21:32:57 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 01:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 JOSE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Jose was located near 16.7, -58.8 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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