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Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 45
2016-09-02 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022035 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Gaston is practically devoid of deep convection, and it is assumed that a significant spindown has occurred today. Under this assumption, the advisory intensity is set at 45 kt which is in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Since the cyclone will be moving over the colder waters to the north of the Azores and through an environment of strong shear, the forecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours, and this event may occur even sooner than that. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes, along with observations from Flores in the Azores, indicate that the motion is around 070/15 kt. Gaston should curve gradually toward the northeast, ahead of a broad trough in the mid-latitude westerlies, until dissipation. The official track forecast is very close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 39.6N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 40.3N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 42.1N 25.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 44.3N 21.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-02 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON WEAKENING RAPIDLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 2 the center of GASTON was located near 39.6, -30.4 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
2016-09-02 19:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2016 17:40:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Sep 2016 15:07:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
2016-09-02 19:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GASTON NEAR FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Sep 2 the center of GASTON was located near 39.3, -31.3 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 44A
2016-09-02 19:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 021739 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 200 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 ...GASTON NEAR FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 31.3W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM W OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flores and Corvo in the western Azores * Faial, Pico, Graciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 31.3 West. Gaston is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will pass north of the central Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gaston is expected to become a remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the western Azores today and over portions of the central Azores tonight. RAINFALL: Gaston is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the western and central Azores through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Gaston are affecting the Azores and will continue into Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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