je.st
news
Tag: julio
Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 3
2014-08-04 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041439 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 119.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
Tags: number
storm
julio
advisory
Tropical Storm JULIO Graphics
2014-08-04 11:25:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 08:50:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 09:10:00 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
julio
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-04 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Satellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a large area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided with most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center. However, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and two ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in agreement with the ASCAT data. Only a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36 hours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone. While there is some suggestion that this shear could abate after this time, there is enough uncertainty to only show steady strengthening. At long range, the cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over the eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle, so no intensity change is indicated at that time. The latest NHC forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the latest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. ASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt. A strong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the storm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next several days. Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end of the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and model guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle. The NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a bit south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
julio
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-04 10:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS.... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of JULIO was located near 13.4, -118.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
julio
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 2
2014-08-04 10:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 040845 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS.... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 118.4W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
public
storm
julio
Sites : [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] next »